衡水市农户土地资源转出意愿的影响因素与行政干预

[目的]通过了解河北省衡水市农户土地转出的意愿状况,分析影响农户土地资源转出意愿的关键因素,并制定正确的战略决策,为构建农地适度规模化经营奠定理论基础,促进衡水市农民的现代化发展。[方法]文章结合调研情况,对样本区农户土地使用权流转行为进行了统计描述和分析研究,并运用Logistic模型对农户土地使用权转出意愿的影响因素进行了分析,找到了影响衡水市土地流转的关键性因素。[结果]研究表明,户主年龄、从事职业和文化程度、农户家庭非农收入以及农户家庭兼业人数等与农户土地转出意愿呈显著正相关关系,显著性数值分别为0. 018、0. 000、0. 010、0. 000、0. 028,而农户家庭农用机械数量则与农户土地转出意愿呈显著负相关关系,显著性数值为0. 033。此外农户社会保障程度和农户对政府土地流转的相关政策了解程度等因素也影响着农户土地流转的意愿。[结论]影响农户土地转出意愿的显著性因素包括家庭非农收入、户主年龄和职业;另外,户主的年龄、职业、文化程度、非农收入、家庭兼业人数和农用机械数量均是影响农户土地转出意愿的重要内容。     

森林认证标识认知影响因素的实证分析——基于北京市488名消费者的调查

依据2014年8~10月对北京市488名消费者的问卷调查资料,运用二元因变量的Logistic回归模型,对影响消费者对森林认证标识认知的因素进行了实证分析。结果表明:影响消费者对森林认证标识认知的主要因素是职业、对森林状况的了解、信息渠道和通常对于标识的信任度。最后就如何提高消费者对森林认证标识的认知水平和信任程度给出了加大对森林认证及其标识的宣传力度;充分利用多种宣传渠道展开对森林认证及其标识的宣传;增强国人的森林资源危机意识;更多地组织保护森林资源的活动;积极开拓国内森林认证产品市场;加大对森林认证产品的监督管理;消费者应增强自身的环保意识、绿色消费意识和责任意识等建议。     

The role of corrosive internalisation and denial of responsibility in stabilising inequality in South Africa

ABSTRACT

This paper examines how capabilities inequality is stabilised through its consequences on those at both ends of the distribution. It outlines the development of the balance model, which is argued to help highlight these consequences. Specifically, how adverse environments associated with lack of access to resources and poor treatment can lead to internal consequences which further corrode capabilities. At the same time, denial of this corrosion or its importance is critical for those who benefit from the inequality. To avoid moral constraints being triggered it is important, necessary even, for them to see those who suffer as outside of their moral universe, or their suffering to be in no way associated with their advantage. Corrosion and denial work to stabilise the system. For those in the middle of the distribution, they may work to do so in combination. Appreciating these internalised consequences is key to addressing inequality in South Africa.     

我国出租车牌照拍卖机制研究

论文以有效分配、促进竞争、实现经济价值为目标，建立了公开升价拍卖+密封拍卖的两阶段牌照拍卖模型，证明了其有效性和最优性。并以北京市为例讨论了牌照数量的确定、进入密封拍卖阶段的时机和牌照的流通等实际问题。这些讨论将有利于拍卖机制在现实中的操作实施。     

Bond Pricing with a Time‐Varying Price of Risk in an Estimated Medium‐Scale Bayesian DSGE Model

New Keynesian model in which households have Epstein–Zin preferences with time‐varying risk aversion and the central bank has a time‐varying inflation target can match the dynamics of nominal bond prices in the U.S. economy well. The model generates a large steady‐state term spread and its fitting errors for bond yields are comparable to those obtained from a nonstructural three‐factor model, and one‐third smaller than in models with a constant inflation target or risk aversion. Including data on interest rates has large effects on variance decompositions, making investment technology shocks much less important than found in other recent papers.     

高校科技创新、技术溢出与区域技术进步——基于2002~2014 年数据的实证研究

本文运用Eviews7.2 软件，采用面板数据模型实证研究了高校科技创新对我国区域技术进步的影响，得到了面板数据回归结果。结果表明，高校R&D 人员投入和专利技术产出对中部和西部地区的技术进步起着显著的促进作用，R&D 经费投入对中部、西部及东北地区的技术进步起着阻碍作用，同时科技论文产出对区域技术进步的影响不显著。这表明高校应当改革传统的以论文数量、科研经费为导向的高校科研考核制度，改进和完善科研评价体系，加强人才队伍建设，整合人才资源，形成优秀的科研团队，同时要加强产学研合作，建立企业与高校之间的信息平台，从而实现信息交流和资源共享，促进高校的科技成果向企业转化。     

A strategic planning model for the railway system accident rescue problem

The present study examines the location of emergency rescue problems for urban ambulance and railway emergency systems. The proposed model considers probabilistic rescue demand, independent busy fractions of ambulances, and the corresponding risk levels in railway segments. We formulate the proposed model using fuzzy multi-objective programming and solve it using a generic algorithm and a non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II. Computation results are analyzed by applying the model to a real-world Taiwan railway system. Analytical results demonstrate that a proper adjustment of the rescue resource location improves rescue effectiveness for railway rescue and urban medical service demand.     

ADMISSIBILITY OF GENERIC MARKET MODELS OF FORWARD SWAP RATES

Our main goal is to re‐examine and extend certain results from the papers by Galluccio et al. and Pietersz and van Regenmortel. We establish several results providing alternate necessary and sufficient conditions for admissibility of a family of forward swaps, that is, the property that it is supported by a (positive) family of bonds associated with the underlying tenor structure. We also derive the generic expression for the joint dynamics of a family of forward swap rates under a single probability measure and we show that these dynamics are uniquely determined by a selection of volatility processes with respect to the set of driving martingales.     

Tourism agglomeration and urbanization: empirical evidence from China

Tourism-driven urbanization presents a new way of exploring the construction of a new-type of urbanization. Consequently, the relationship between urbanization and the frequent agglomeration of tourism activities has attracted much research attention in recent years. This paper empirically investigates the influence of tourism agglomeration on urbanization using China’s provincial panel data for years 1999–2012. A panel data model with a fixed effect model and a two-step system generalized method of moments estimation is constructed to explore that influence. Results show that tourism agglomeration positively influences urbanization, and there exists a U-shaped relationship between these two variables. After capturing the dynamic nature of urbanization, we estimate the long-term tourism agglomeration elasticity in China as 0.4566. This paper provides theoretical and practical implications on urbanization of China in view of tourism agglomeration.     

基于免疫机理的黑龙江省耕地系统安全预警研究

研究目的:科学识别黑龙江省耕地系统安全警情现状及其未来发展趋势。研究方法:改进突变级数模型和Elman神经网络模型。研究结果:(1)构建基于生物免疫机理的耕地系统安全警情评定指标体系,得出黑龙江省警情1995—2014年整体呈波动上升趋势,警度从"无警"上升至"轻警",再至"中警",说明基于改进突变级数模型的评价结果可凸显评价对象之"优、劣"特征;(2)引入Elman神经网络构建耕地系统安全警情预测模型,测试拟合精度在0.97以上,预测结果可靠,表明未来20年黑龙江省警情将整体呈先升高、后降低趋势,警度在"轻警"与"中警"之间。研究结论:基于生物免疫机理的黑龙江省耕地系统安全预警研究,可为省域尺度下耕地系统安全预警提供一种新的思路。